Daim ntawv tshaj tawm "Tuam Tshoj Energy Development Report 2023" tso tawm los ntawm General Institute of Electric Power Planning and Design nyob rau hauv Beijing thaum Lub Yim Hli 31 qhia tias kuv lub teb chaws kev siv hluav taws xob tseem tab tom qhia txog kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua, thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm cov pa roj carbon tsawg ntawm lub zog tsis tu ncua.
Rao Jianye, Tus Lwm Thawj Coj (tus thawj coj) ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ruaj Ntseg Zog ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Hluav Taws Xob, tau hais tias kuv lub tebchaws lub zog muaj peev xwm tau txhim kho tau zoo. Hauv 2022, tag nrho cov thawj lub zog tsim khoom yuav ncav cuag 4.66 billion tons ntawm cov qauv thee, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 9.2%. Cov kev tawg tshiab tau tsim nyob rau hauv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tsis muaj zog. Nyob rau hauv 2022, lub peev xwm ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tsis yog fossil zog yuav ncav cuag 1.27 billion kilowatts, suav txog 49.6%. Qhov tshiab ntsia muaj peev xwm ntawm cua fais fab thiab photovoltaics tshaj 120 lab kilowatts, thiab lub zog tsim tau tshaj 1 trillion kilowatt-teev thawj zaug. Lub zog khaws cia thiab kev thauj mus los tau raug txhim kho ntxiv, kev xa hluav taws xob sib txuas tau raug txhim kho tas li, cov roj thiab roj cia thiab cov chaw thauj mus los tau muaj zog ntxiv, thiab qhov ntsuas ntawm lub zog tshiab thiab cov twj tso kua mis tau mus txog qhov siab tshiab.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias kuv lub teb chaws kev siv hluav taws xob tseem tab tom qhia txog kev loj hlob nruj. Hauv 2022, kuv lub teb chaws qhov kev siv hluav taws xob tag nrho yuav ncav cuag 5.41 billion tons ntawm cov qauv thee, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 2.9%. Qhov nruab nrab ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob elasticity coefficient hauv thawj ob xyoos ntawm "14th Tsib Xyoo Plan" yog 0.74, uas yog nce ntxiv piv nrog "12th Tsib Xyoo Plan" thiab "13th Tsib Xyoos Npaj". . Kuv lub teb chaws qhov kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob qis qis tsis tu ncua, thiab qhov feem pua ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tsis siv hluav taws xob tau nce mus rau 17.5%. Coal ua lub luag haujlwm hauv kev ua kom muaj zog, thiab qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm kev siv tau nce mus rau 56.2%. Kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev txuag hluav taws xob thiab txo cov pa roj carbon monoxide hauv cov cheeb tsam tseem ceeb txuas ntxiv mus. Hauv 2022, kev siv hluav taws xob siv rau ib chav tsev ntawm GDP yuav txo qis los ntawm 0.1%, thiab cov pa roj carbon emission siv yuav txo qis los ntawm 0.8%. Kev txuag hluav taws xob thiab kev txo qis hauv kev lag luam, kev tsim kho, kev thauj mus los thiab lwm yam kev lag luam yuav nrawm.
Rao Jianye tau hais tias kuv lub teb chaws lub zog thev naus laus zis thev naus laus zis muaj peev xwm txuas ntxiv txhim kho, thiab cov thev naus laus zis xws li lub peev xwm loj hauv ntug dej hiav txwv cua turbines, dej hiav txwv cua tsis muaj desalination hydrogen ntau lawm, supercritical CO2 lub zog tsim technology, tidal fais fab tuag, thiab underwater roj thiab roj tau nrawm. rov kho dua tshiab. Cov haujlwm tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsim kho tshiab txuas ntxiv mus. Lub chaw nres tsheb Baihetan Hydropower tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm los tsim hluav taws xob. Lub ntiaj teb loj tshaj plaws "Shagehuang" cua fais fab photovoltaic puag project pib tsim nyob rau hauv Kubuqi Suab puam. Cov haujlwm xws li Shengli Oilfield's lab-tuj CCUS tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm.
Daim ntawv qhia "Energy Report" qhia tias kuv lub teb chaws kev siv hluav taws xob tseem tab tom qhia txog kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua. Hauv 2022, kuv lub teb chaws qhov kev siv hluav taws xob tag nrho yuav ncav cuag 5.41 billion tons ntawm cov qauv thee, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 2.9%. Qhov nruab nrab ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob elasticity coefficient hauv thawj ob xyoos ntawm "14th Tsib Xyoo Plan" yog 0.74, uas yog nce ntxiv piv nrog "12th Tsib Xyoo Plan" thiab "13th Tsib Xyoos Npaj". . Kuv lub teb chaws txoj kev hloov pauv ntawm cov pa roj carbon tsawg yog qhov tsis tu ncua, nrog rau qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob uas tsis yog pob txha siv tau nce mus rau 17.5%, thiab qhov feem pua ntawm cov roj thiab cov nkev noj tau poob mus rau 17.9% thiab 8.4% feem. Coal ua lub luag haujlwm hauv kev ua kom muaj zog, thiab qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm kev siv tau nce mus rau 56.2%. Kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev txuag hluav taws xob thiab txo cov pa roj carbon monoxide hauv cov cheeb tsam tseem ceeb txuas ntxiv mus. Hauv 2022, kev siv hluav taws xob siv rau ib chav tsev ntawm GDP yuav txo qis los ntawm 0.1%, thiab cov pa roj carbon emission siv yuav txo qis los ntawm 0.8%. Kev txuag hluav taws xob thiab kev txo qis hauv kev lag luam, kev tsim kho, kev thauj mus los thiab lwm yam kev lag luam yuav nrawm.
Kev sib piv ntawm cov qauv siv hluav taws xob hauv xyoo 2021 thiab 2022
Rao Jianye tau hais tias kuv lub teb chaws lub zog thev naus laus zis thev naus laus zis muaj peev xwm txuas ntxiv txhim kho, thiab cov thev naus laus zis xws li lub peev xwm loj hauv ntug dej hiav txwv cua turbines, dej hiav txwv cua tsis muaj desalination hydrogen ntau lawm, supercritical CO2 lub zog tsim technology, tidal fais fab tuag, thiab underwater roj thiab roj tau nrawm. rov kho dua tshiab. Cov haujlwm tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsim kho tshiab txuas ntxiv mus. Lub chaw nres tsheb Baihetan Hydropower tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm los tsim hluav taws xob. Lub ntiaj teb loj tshaj plaws "Shagehuang" cua fais fab photovoltaic puag project pib tsim nyob rau hauv Kubuqi Suab puam. Cov haujlwm xws li Shengli Oilfield's lab-tuj CCUS tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm.
Liu Qiang, tus lwm thawj coj (tus thawj coj) ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Tshawb Fawb Hluav Taws Xob Hluav Taws Xob ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Tshawb Fawb Hluav Taws Xob, tau hais tias kuv lub teb chaws cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tau lees paub muaj peev xwm tau txhim kho ntxiv. Thaum kawg ntawm 2022, tag nrho cov peev txheej tsim hluav taws xob hauv lub tebchaws yuav ncav cuag 2.56 billion kilowatts, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 7.8%; lub peev xwm tsim hluav taws xob hauv teb chaws yuav yog 8.7 trillion kilowatt-teev, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 3.6%; Lub pace ntawm ntsuab thiab qis-carbon transformation ntawm hluav taws xob fais fab tau nrawm. Nyob rau hauv 2022, lub zog tshiab uas tsis yog pob txha siv hluav taws xob tsim muaj peev xwm yuav muaj txog li 150 lab kilowatts, suav txog 83.0% ntawm tag nrho cov tshiab ntsia; lub zog tshiab uas tsis yog pob txha siv hluav taws xob muaj peev xwm yuav muaj txog 250 billion kWh, suav txog 84.0% ntawm tag nrho cov peev txheej tsim hluav taws xob tshiab.
Txhim kho lub peev xwm thiab lub zog tsim hluav taws xob ntawm ntau qhov chaw siv hluav taws xob thoob tebchaws hauv xyoo 2022 (100 lab kW, trillion kWh)
Daim ntawv "Electric Power Report" qhia tias kuv lub teb chaws qhov kev thov hluav taws xob tau loj hlob tsis tu ncua. Xyoo 2022, kev siv hluav taws xob ntawm tag nrho cov zej zog hauv kuv lub teb chaws yuav ncav cuag 8.6 trillion kWh, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 3.6%. Cov qauv ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv yuav ua kom zoo dua qub, thiab cov qauv ntawm kev hloov hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob los ntawm kev lag luam theem nrab mus rau kev lag luam tertiary thiab hluav taws xob hauv tsev yuav raug tswj xyuas. Hauv peb lub xyoos tom ntej no, lub teb chaws qhov kev thov hluav taws xob yuav txuas ntxiv kom muaj kev loj hlob nruj. Nws kwv yees tias kev siv hluav taws xob ntawm tag nrho lub zej zog yuav ncav cuag 9.8 trillion rau 10.2 trillion kWh hauv 2025.
Liu Qiang tau hais tias qhov hloov pauv ntawm kuv lub teb chaws lub zog hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv txhim kho. Hauv thawj ob xyoos ntawm "14th Tsib Xyoo Plan", tag nrho cov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov thee fais fab "peb kev hloov kho thiab kev sib txuas" tau tshaj 485 lab kilowatts, ua tiav 81% ntawm lub hom phiaj npaj. Thaum kawg ntawm 2022, lub peev xwm ntawm cov twj tso kua mis yuav ncav cuag 45.79 lab kilowatts, thiab qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas ntawm lub zog tshiab yuav yog li 8.7 lab kilowatts. Qhov teeb meem ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob tshiab txuas ntxiv txhim kho, thiab lub teb chaws cua zog thiab kev siv hluav taws xob photovoltaic tau nce mus txog 96.8% thiab 98.3%. Nyob rau hauv peb lub xyoos tom ntej no, nyob ib ncig ntawm kev tsim kho lub zog tshiab, nws yog ib qho tsim nyog los sib koom tes thiab ua kom zoo tshaj plaws ntawm ntau qhov chaw siv hluav taws xob xws li cov pa hluav taws xob, cov twj tso kua mis, lub zog cua, lub hnub ci zog, lub zog nuclear, thiab lub zog thee.
Kev tsom mus rau kev tsim cov tshuab hluav taws xob tshiab, "Electric Power Report" muab tso rau kev tshawb fawb thiab kev txiav txim siab nyob rau hauv 6 yam:
1. Lub tshuab hluav taws xob tshiab yuav tsum tau tsim kho tshiab thiab kho dua tshiab ntawm lub zog uas twb muaj lawm. kuv lub teb chaws lub zog hluav taws xob tau maj mam tsim mus rau hauv lub zog hluav taws xob nrog lub ntiaj teb loj tshaj plaws kev sib kis muaj peev xwm, siab tshaj plaws kev sib kis hluav taws xob, ntau lub cheeb tsam kab sib chaws AC thiab DC hybrid kev sib txuas, thiab kev lag luam hluav taws xob ua tiav tau tsim ib txhij. Kev tsim kho hom tshiab ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob yog qhov nyuaj thiab nyuaj kev tsim kho tshuab, uas yuav tsum muaj kev npaj tag nrho ntawm txoj kev teeb tsa, kev xa mus rau kev tshawb fawb, thiab kev ua kom zoo.
2. Cov qib kev nyab xeeb thiab txhim khu kev qha hloov lub zog tshiab yuav tsum tau txhim kho sai sai. Tam sim no, lub zog tshiab yog tsim los ntawm cov nplai loj, tab sis lub peev xwm txhim khu kev qha tau muab rau hauv kev ua haujlwm tiag tiag tsis tshaj 5%, thiab feem ntau ntawm lawv tsis tuaj yeem muab lub sijhawm ntawm inertia, thiab lwm txoj kev txhim khu kev qha tseem tsis tau tsim. Txhawm rau kom ua tiav qhov kev hloov pauv hloov pauv kev xav tau ntawm lub zog hloov pauv + peev xwm hloov pauv + kev nyab xeeb thiab ruaj khov, nws yog ib qho tsim nyog yuav tsum tau siv "cov cuab yeej siv thev naus laus zis + thev naus laus zis tshiab (lub qhov rais hluav taws xob kwv yees thev naus laus zis thev naus laus zis, kev tswj hwm thev naus laus zis, lub zog tshiab, kev tswj hwm thev naus laus zis, etc.)" los tshawb txog ntau yam Siv cov qauv.
3. Txhawb kev txhim kho zoo ntawm cov twj tso kua mis nrog lub tswv yim zoo. Kev tsim kho lub voj voog ntawm cov twj tso kua mis yog qhov ntev, thiab nws yuav tsum tau ua ke cov kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom siv thiab cov khoom siv hauv chaw, ua raws li lub tswv yim ntawm lub cev, sib koom ua ke thiab ua kom zoo tshaj qhov kev loj hlob thiab kev tsim ua ntu zus ntawm cov twj tso kua mis, sib koom ua ke kev txhim kho hauv cheeb tsam thiab lub xeev pumped cia. layouts, thiab tswj cov twj tso kua mis cia thiab tshiab lub zog cia Qhov zoo tshaj plaws faib ntawm lwm yam kev cai tswj kev pab cuam, rational layout, scientific thiab orderly kev loj hlob thiab kev tsim kho.
4. Txoj kev loj hlob ntawm Shagehuang puag yuav tsum xyuas kom meej lub "trinity". Txhawm rau kom ntseeg tau tias kev txhim kho zoo thiab kev siv lub zog tshiab hauv thaj chaw Shagohuang, kev txhim kho ntawm cov cua loj loj thiab lub hnub ci hauv paus yuav tsum siv cov kev xav zoo los tswj hwm thiab ua kom zoo tshaj qhov teev, teeb tsa thiab lub sijhawm ntawm peb lub ntsiab lus ntawm lub zog cua thiab photovoltaic puag, kev tswj kev muaj peev xwm, thiab kev xa khoom raws.
5. Txoj kev loj hlob ntawm ntug dej hiav txwv cua fais fab yuav tsum ua raws li kev npaj tag nrho ntawm thaj av thiab dej hiav txwv. kuv lub teb chaws lub offshore cua fais fab yog mas deployed nyob rau hauv lub sab hnub tuaj ntug hiav txwv load chaw. Kev loj hlob thiab kev tsim kho loj yuav pab ua kom muaj kev faib ua feem ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob uas tsis yog fossil siv nyob rau hauv ntug dej hiav txwv xeev thiab cheeb tsam. Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog yuav tsum ua raws li kev npaj tag nrho ntawm thaj av thiab dej hiav txwv thiab kev npaj ua ke. Offshore cua fais fab yuav ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev hloov pauv ntawm kuv lub teb chaws lub zog tshiab.
6. Lub teb chaws kev sib koom ua lag luam fais fab kev lag luam yuav tsum tsim kom muaj kev sib koom tes. Kev tsim kho ntawm ib lub teb chaws fais fab kev lag luam yog ntsib qhov teeb meem tshiab nyob rau hauv txoj kev loj hlob xav tau kev hloov pauv ntawm kev khiav hauj lwm cov yam ntxwv ntawm lub zog tshiab, kev loj hlob sai ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab, kev xav tau ceev ceev rau kev sib koom tes ntawm ntau qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb, kev ruaj ntseg ntawm fais fab mov, thiab kev sib txuas zoo ntawm ntau lub khw. Kev tsim kho ntawm kev sib koom ua lag luam hauv teb chaws hluav taws xob yog qhov tseem ceeb heev.